Psychological Warfare on Draft Day

Decker and Manning

Mind games can give you an edge on draft day. Let's say you have targeted Denver WR Eric Decker for the 6th round and it looks like he might not stay on the board until your pick. If you have been tracking your opponents picks you notice that of the 11 other guys at the draft, only 3 have selected a TE as you begin the early part of the 5th round. To get their thoughts away from taking a WR, and specifically Decker, you announce that you are worried about getting a good TE on your next pick coming up in the 6th round.

This slight comment will creep into their subconscious and cause them to consider when they plan to draft a TE and whether their guy will be there. This could cause one of them to take a TE and set off a possible run on TEs, leaving more WRs for you. It's a worth a shot and could well pay off if it causes Decker to fall to you in the 6th. Getting into your draft buddies heads is a sure way to manipulate your draft.

Why Rankings Are Fool's Gold



Where was Cruz ranked in 2011?

 Almost all fantasy football players love to stare at rankings and try to analyze what they mean. So, what does it mean? Probably not much. Rankings are a staple of the fantasy diet but they are low in protein and mostly junk food. Novice players need rankings as a guide but more experienced players should develop their own valuations and trust their gut.

Fantasy leagues vary quite a bit in their formats and scoring and this can make player rankings almost useless when they are not based on your league's scoring. Use your brain and do your own research. Rankings are just another guy's opinions.

How Expectations Can Create Perceptions on Draft Day

You might think that your emotions do not come into play during a draft but you would be wrong. Almost all human decisions are affected in some way by our emotions. Our expectations of certain players affects our perceptions of them. These often unconscious biases have a tremendous impact on our decisions. Are you aware of the reasons why you like certain players more than others? is it based on hard data and statistics? Or is it just based on a gut feeling?

Take the Lions RB Kevin Smith for example. How do you evaluate him for this season? He is perceived by many as a an injury plagued guy who can't stay on the field. Do you expect him to be a bust? If you consider his tremendous upside in one of the league's best offenses you'll find it easy to make a case for drafting him in the late rounds. Jahvid Best is a concussion away from retirement and Mikel Leshoure is not even playing the first two weeks. Focus on the data and circumstances and don't let your expectations create perceptions that will cloud your thinking. You have to "see" what other guys don't see to get an edge on draft day.

When is a Receiver Too Old to Draft?



Larry Fitzgerald

 

 Speed dominates in the NFL and receivers older than 30 typically have begun to lose a step. But does this theory to apply to superstars like Larry Fitzgerald? Although he might be an exception, in general you should not draft receivers who are 30 and older. The main reason is an increased chance of injury. Very simply, older bodies break down more often.

If Fitzgerald is calling your name late in Round 1 or early in Round 2, you should pass on him and take a younger player like Chris Johnson or Ray Rice. Always take value where you can find it and you will not find comparable RBs in the 3th and 4th rounds. However, you can find excellent WRs after the second round this year. Look for younger rising talents like Percy Harvin and Julio Jones. Both will likely score the same or more points than Fitzgerald this year. Fitz is a great talent but both of his QBs are crap and his best years are likely behind him. Remember, youth and speed are key variables when comparing top WRs. Always play the probabilities and you'll have an edge on the other guys.