Thursday, August 9, 2012
Seeking To Confirm, A Common Mistake
Do you pay more attention to news that is favorable to your political positions? Do you look for examples of evidence that matches only your opinions and contradicts your opponents? This tendency to favor information that confirms our beliefs can lead to poor decisions. Research indicates that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. We all have a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. This is known as confirmation bias.
In fantasy football, this tendency can bias owners' decisions when analyzing players and when making other game decisions. Check yourself on major decisions and make sure you have looked at both sides of the issue. For example, you might now be convinced that Ryan Mathews is not worth drafting due to his latest injury. But are you now looking only for evidence of past injuries and other reasons why not to draft Mathews? Wasn't he a 1st round possibility just a couple of weeks ago? And now he's toast? He didn't get cancer or lose a leg. Many guys in your league will fall victim to this type of confirmation bias and let Mathews fall further than might be warranted. If he falls far enough to justify consideration, don't let confirmation bias cause you to over look him.
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| Dead and buried or over sold? |
In fantasy football, this tendency can bias owners' decisions when analyzing players and when making other game decisions. Check yourself on major decisions and make sure you have looked at both sides of the issue. For example, you might now be convinced that Ryan Mathews is not worth drafting due to his latest injury. But are you now looking only for evidence of past injuries and other reasons why not to draft Mathews? Wasn't he a 1st round possibility just a couple of weeks ago? And now he's toast? He didn't get cancer or lose a leg. Many guys in your league will fall victim to this type of confirmation bias and let Mathews fall further than might be warranted. If he falls far enough to justify consideration, don't let confirmation bias cause you to over look him.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Avoiding Herd Behavior on Draft Day
During the excitement and fast tempo of a draft it's easy to get caught up in a run on a certain skill position, but the smart guys always think for themselves and take the best value on the board at the time. Observe for yourself what happens the next time a fire alarm goes off at work. Your friends will look at each other to decide what to do. Is this a drill? Do I smell smoke? When the alarm goes off your brain automatically tells you to turn to the group because groups provided our ancestors with comfort and safety. Running off by yourself when a lion charges your group was not good for gene survival. Dumb people die off quickly.
However, the downside to this human tendency to seek consensus with those around us has led many people to be killed in night club fires and other similar situations. Rather than run to the nearest exit, people invariably follow the crowd and jam the main exit. Why do we do this? Because following is easier than going your own way.
Don't fall victim to herd behavior during a draft. Let others make hasty group decisions while you remain calm and examine all of your options. When your buddies go off the deep end and begin taking defenses in the 7th round, this is the time to rob them and take another high ceiling RB, WR, or QB. Always ask "Who is the best player available?" before each pick. Then ask what position do you need the most help at this point in the draft. Focusing on these two questions will enable you to think critically about who the best options are in this round. Always check yourself and make sure you are not abandoning your decision making powers to group think.
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| David Wilson - A solid late round value pick |
However, the downside to this human tendency to seek consensus with those around us has led many people to be killed in night club fires and other similar situations. Rather than run to the nearest exit, people invariably follow the crowd and jam the main exit. Why do we do this? Because following is easier than going your own way.
Don't fall victim to herd behavior during a draft. Let others make hasty group decisions while you remain calm and examine all of your options. When your buddies go off the deep end and begin taking defenses in the 7th round, this is the time to rob them and take another high ceiling RB, WR, or QB. Always ask "Who is the best player available?" before each pick. Then ask what position do you need the most help at this point in the draft. Focusing on these two questions will enable you to think critically about who the best options are in this round. Always check yourself and make sure you are not abandoning your decision making powers to group think.
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