Seeking To Confirm, A Common Mistake



Dead and buried or over sold?

 Do you pay more attention to news that is favorable to your political positions? Do you look for examples of evidence that matches only your opinions and contradicts your opponents? This tendency to favor information that confirms our beliefs can lead to poor decisions. Research  indicates that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. We all have a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. This is known as confirmation bias.

In fantasy football, this tendency can bias owners' decisions when analyzing players and when making other game decisions. Check yourself on major decisions and make sure you have looked at both sides of the issue. For example, you might now be convinced that Ryan Mathews is not worth drafting due to his latest injury. But are you now looking only for evidence of past injuries and other reasons why not to draft Mathews?  Wasn't he a 1st round possibility just a couple of weeks ago? And now he's toast? He didn't get cancer or lose a leg. Many guys in your league will fall victim to this type of confirmation bias and let Mathews fall further than might be warranted. If he falls far enough to justify consideration, don't let confirmation bias cause you to over look him.