Seeking To Confirm, A Common Mistake



Dead and buried or over sold?

 Do you pay more attention to news that is favorable to your political positions? Do you look for examples of evidence that matches only your opinions and contradicts your opponents? This tendency to favor information that confirms our beliefs can lead to poor decisions. Research  indicates that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. We all have a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. This is known as confirmation bias.

In fantasy football, this tendency can bias owners' decisions when analyzing players and when making other game decisions. Check yourself on major decisions and make sure you have looked at both sides of the issue. For example, you might now be convinced that Ryan Mathews is not worth drafting due to his latest injury. But are you now looking only for evidence of past injuries and other reasons why not to draft Mathews?  Wasn't he a 1st round possibility just a couple of weeks ago? And now he's toast? He didn't get cancer or lose a leg. Many guys in your league will fall victim to this type of confirmation bias and let Mathews fall further than might be warranted. If he falls far enough to justify consideration, don't let confirmation bias cause you to over look him.

Avoiding Herd Behavior on Draft Day

  

David Wilson - A solid late round value pick

  During the excitement and fast tempo of a draft it's easy to get caught up in a run on a certain skill position, but the smart guys always think for themselves and take the best value on the board at the time. Observe for yourself what happens the next time a fire alarm goes off at work. Your friends will look at each other to decide what to do. Is this a drill? Do I smell smoke? When the alarm goes off your brain automatically tells you to turn to the group because groups provided our ancestors with comfort and safety. Running off by yourself when a lion charges your group was not good for gene survival. Dumb people die off quickly.

However, the downside to this human tendency to seek consensus with those around us has led many people to be killed in night club fires and other similar situations. Rather than run to the nearest exit, people invariably follow the crowd and jam the main exit. Why do we do this? Because following is easier than going your own way.

Don't fall victim to herd behavior during a draft. Let others make hasty group decisions while you remain calm and examine all of your options. When your buddies go off the deep end and begin taking defenses in the 7th round, this is the time to rob them and take another high ceiling RB, WR, or QB. Always ask "Who is the best player available?" before each pick. Then ask what position do you need the most help at this point in the draft. Focusing on these two questions will enable you to think critically about who the best options are in this round. Always check yourself and make sure you are not abandoning your decision making powers to group think.

Psychological Warfare on Draft Day

Decker and Manning

Mind games can give you an edge on draft day. Let's say you have targeted Denver WR Eric Decker for the 6th round and it looks like he might not stay on the board until your pick. If you have been tracking your opponents picks you notice that of the 11 other guys at the draft, only 3 have selected a TE as you begin the early part of the 5th round. To get their thoughts away from taking a WR, and specifically Decker, you announce that you are worried about getting a good TE on your next pick coming up in the 6th round.

This slight comment will creep into their subconscious and cause them to consider when they plan to draft a TE and whether their guy will be there. This could cause one of them to take a TE and set off a possible run on TEs, leaving more WRs for you. It's a worth a shot and could well pay off if it causes Decker to fall to you in the 6th. Getting into your draft buddies heads is a sure way to manipulate your draft.

Why Rankings Are Fool's Gold



Where was Cruz ranked in 2011?

 Almost all fantasy football players love to stare at rankings and try to analyze what they mean. So, what does it mean? Probably not much. Rankings are a staple of the fantasy diet but they are low in protein and mostly junk food. Novice players need rankings as a guide but more experienced players should develop their own valuations and trust their gut.

Fantasy leagues vary quite a bit in their formats and scoring and this can make player rankings almost useless when they are not based on your league's scoring. Use your brain and do your own research. Rankings are just another guy's opinions.

How Expectations Can Create Perceptions on Draft Day

You might think that your emotions do not come into play during a draft but you would be wrong. Almost all human decisions are affected in some way by our emotions. Our expectations of certain players affects our perceptions of them. These often unconscious biases have a tremendous impact on our decisions. Are you aware of the reasons why you like certain players more than others? is it based on hard data and statistics? Or is it just based on a gut feeling?

Take the Lions RB Kevin Smith for example. How do you evaluate him for this season? He is perceived by many as a an injury plagued guy who can't stay on the field. Do you expect him to be a bust? If you consider his tremendous upside in one of the league's best offenses you'll find it easy to make a case for drafting him in the late rounds. Jahvid Best is a concussion away from retirement and Mikel Leshoure is not even playing the first two weeks. Focus on the data and circumstances and don't let your expectations create perceptions that will cloud your thinking. You have to "see" what other guys don't see to get an edge on draft day.

When is a Receiver Too Old to Draft?



Larry Fitzgerald

 

 Speed dominates in the NFL and receivers older than 30 typically have begun to lose a step. But does this theory to apply to superstars like Larry Fitzgerald? Although he might be an exception, in general you should not draft receivers who are 30 and older. The main reason is an increased chance of injury. Very simply, older bodies break down more often.

If Fitzgerald is calling your name late in Round 1 or early in Round 2, you should pass on him and take a younger player like Chris Johnson or Ray Rice. Always take value where you can find it and you will not find comparable RBs in the 3th and 4th rounds. However, you can find excellent WRs after the second round this year. Look for younger rising talents like Percy Harvin and Julio Jones. Both will likely score the same or more points than Fitzgerald this year. Fitz is a great talent but both of his QBs are crap and his best years are likely behind him. Remember, youth and speed are key variables when comparing top WRs. Always play the probabilities and you'll have an edge on the other guys.